By Hot Karl Clemson
Full disclosure, this post has been written by someone who has never drafted Joe Mixon in fantasy football. This post is unbiased and is 100% based off facts. Enjoy!
Ah, the smell of summer! The smell of freshly cut grass, suntan lotion, the smell of BBQ chicken and burgers on the grill, and my personal favorite…the smell of bullshit regarding Joe Mixon’s fantasy value. We’ve heard it all before, “Joe Mixon is going to have a monster season!” Or even better, “Joe Mixon is going to finish as a top-5 running back in fantasy football!” We’ve been hearing these comments from so-called “fantasy experts” since 2018 and every year you gullible schmucks fall for it.
Now whether you are one of the fools who believes in Joe Mixon’s talents or you’re on team #NeverJoeMixon like myself, we all have to agree, Joe Mixon is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football history. Now we’ve had a lot of flash in the pan talents throughout the course of NFL history, including a lot of players that fantasy football managers just can’t seem break up with. Guys such as Ryan Mathews, Roy Williams, Dwayne Bowe, C.J. Spiller, and Trent Richardson to name a few. And while all of these players experienced their share of “pre-season hype,” none of them came close to generating as much division amongst fantasy managers as Joe Mixon has.
So what’s the appeal of Joe Mixon? Why is everyone continuing to bank on his upside? And why do fantasy managers continue to draft Joe Mixon after multiple disappointing seasons? These are questions I’m going to elaborate on over the course of this post. But instead of looking at Mixon’s professional career as a whole, I’m going to dive into each year of his professional career individually, in the hopes of preventing at least one of you idiot Joe Mixon truthers from drafting him.
2017
Viewed as a first-round talent coming out of Oklahoma, Mixon fell to the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft thanks to major character concerns (2014 misdemeanor assault charges for punching/breaking a woman’s jaw). During his rookie campaign, Mixon split running back duties with the “Nard Dog” Giovani Bernard (which he would over the next 3 years) as well as Jeremy Hill (remember that guy) who started the first 7 games. In what would become a consistent problem in Cincinnati, the Bengals offensive line was graded as one of the worst in the league (28th), with 11 different offensive lineman taking snaps at some point. The Bengals finished 2017 with a 7-9 record while missing the playoffs completely.
Mixon finished his rookie campaign with 178 rushing attempts, 626 yards (3.5 YPC), 4 TDs, to go along with 30 receptions for 287 yards. While playing behind the same offensive line, Gio Bernard clearly outplayed Mixon in 2017, averaging 4.4 YPC, almost a full yard more than Mixon. In comparison to other rookie RB’s that year, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey all eclipsed +1,000 total yards. Even Dalvin Cook who missed his final 12 games during his rookie season finished with a higher YPC (4.8) than Mixon.
2018
Entering his sophomore season, Joe Mixon found himself moving up draft boards, all the way up into the second round of most fantasy drafts. Fantasy experts and fans alike seemed fixated on the comparison of Joe Mixon to fantasy football MVP Le’Veon Bell at the time. Both backs were around the same size (6’1 220lbs), they both averaged 3.5 YPC during their rookie seasons, and they were both viewed to possess the same skill set as patient runners and reliable pass catchers.
The Bengals did attempt to fix their atrocious offensive line that offseason, with the additions of Cordy Glenn and Billy Price. Even with these additions however, Cincinnati’s offensive line finished as the 27th ranked offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. Despite the O-line struggles, Joe Mixon still finished with a career best 4.9 YPC, while putting together his first 1,000 yard rushing season. Mixon finished 2018 with 237 rushing attempts for 1,168 yards, as well as catching 43 passes for 296 yards, with 9 total TDs. Earning himself his very first (and only) top-10 RB finish, ranking #10 with 243 points in PPR leagues.
Looking back at the 2018 season, its easy to see why experts and fans fell in love with Joe Mixon. He was an ascending player who was coming off a career year, despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Mixon was also able to put together a top-10 finish while missing 2 games due to an arthroscopic knee surgery. So I completely see the view point of fantasy analysts and fans who stated, “imagine what Mixon could do playing a full season.” And a full season is what we got the following year.
2019
Going into the 2019 season, fantasy sites and articles everywhere seemed to crown Joe Mixon as a “top-5 fantasy RB.” Throughout the summer, everyone was calling Mixon a second round value pick, which resulted in his draft stock rising into the late first round by August. The Bengals once again addressed the offensive line during the offseason, and they were getting back both A.J. Green and Andy Dalton who missed time in 2018. Prior to Dalton and Green’s season-ending injuries, the Bengals averaged 27.6 PPG while showcasing a 5-3 record. So there was a lot of optimism in Cincinnati entering 2019.
So how did Joe Mixon follow up his 2018 breakout season? Well for one, Mixon received the “workhorse” treatment, touching the ball a total of 313 times (278 rushes/35 receptions). But despite a larger workload and playing a full 16 games, Mixon finished with less rushing yards (1,137) and rushing TDs (5) while experiencing a YPC drop from 4.9 to a mediocre 4.1 YPC. Hell, the only statistic Mixon seemed to improve on in 2019 was an increase in receiving TDs, from 1 to 3. As for Mixon’s “top-5 fantasy RB” projected finish, Mixon dropped from the #10 fantasy RB in 2018 to #13 in 2019.
So what happened in 2019? Its no secret that the Bengals were a complete mess on both offense and defense. Rookie LT Jonah Williams experienced a season ending shoulder injury during OTA’s, A.J. Green missed all of 2019 after suffering an ankle injury during the first practice of training camp, and Andy Dalton was benched…and then un-benched. Due to injuries up front, the Bengal’s offensive line also regressed even more, finishing as the 30th ranked offensive line. But all of those things don’t excuse Joe Mixon just yet.
Based off of Pro Football Network’s “Offensive Share Metric”, which measures how responsible a player is for their own personal statistics, Joe Mixon finished with the 3rd lowest grade at the RB position in 2019. For those unfamiliar with this metric, it calculates YPC, efficiency rating, and the percentage that the opposing defense has 8 or more defenders in the box. So even with the loss of A.J. Green and Andy Dalton’s inconsistencies, Joe Mixon only faced a stacked box 7.91% of the time (3rd lowest in the NFL). Looking at the low percentage of stacked boxes Mixon faced, as well as his mediocre 4.1 YPC, its safe to say that Joe Mixon failed to create plays on his own. If you would like some visual evidence of Mixon’s inability to create plays, checkout a few plays from the 2020 season below.
2020
Although Joe Mixon didn’t live up to his 1st round ADP in 2019, the experts and Joe Mixon truthers were back hyping him up again last summer. This time around, the hype train centered around the addition of former LSU QB Joe Burrow. Now I agree, adding a mobile QB like Burrow is a huge improvement over the immobile Andy Dalton. I also agree that the ability of Burrow to make plays as both a passer and a rusher should open up running lanes for Joe Mixon. But if you’ve made it this far and you haven’t figured it out yet, Joe Mixon sucks.
Case in point, lets take a look at Mixon’s 2020 stats. Prior to Mixon’s week 6 Lisfranc (midfoot) sprain which put him on the shelf for the remainder of 2020, Mixon had 428 rushing yards on 119 attempts (3.6 YPC), 21 receptions for 138 yards, and 4 total TDs. An important thing to keep in mind when looking at Mixon’s 2020 stats, 151 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and 3 TDs came during his week 4 meeting against a Jaguars defense that allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. If you take away that single blow up game vs Jacksonville, Mixon averaged 55.4 rushing yards per game (2.9 YPC) and scored 1 TD through 5 games. Not great, Bob!
2021
So here we are again, a new fantasy football season is upon us. And just as predictable as the sun rising in the morning, the Joe Mixon hype train is in full effect. Like previous summers, experts and fans are calling Mixon a “steal at his current 2nd round ADP.” This year, many are pointing at the departure of Giovani Bernard as the reasoning for Mixon to breakout as a “true workhorse” in 2021. Well I’m sorry to break the news to all of you Mixon truthers out there, but “Sleepy” Joe Mixon has been a workhorse the past two seasons! As stated above, Mixon saw 313 touches in 2019 (finished as the RB13) and averaged 23.3 touches per game in 2020. Seriously, are you guys banking on 30 touches a game for Mixon this year?
It also appears that the offensive line could be an area of concern yet again for the Bengals. Instead of shoring up the offensive line with Penei Sewell in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, the Bengals went with playmaking wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Now while Chase will be an exciting player to watch alongside Joe Burrow, Chase isn’t going to be opening up many lanes for Mixon, who clearly needs help finding them. Now the Bengals did spend a 2nd round draft pick on Jackson Carman, and they also brought in Riley Reiff to play right tackle. So it remains to be seen what kind of impact they will have on both Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon.
Bottom line
So is Joe Mixon worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year in fantasy football? The answer is simple, absolutely not! The argument that Joe Mixon is an RB1 or that he is an absolute steal at his current ADP is laughable. Mixon has proved time and time…and time again that he’s not the “league winner” that certain experts or fans make him out to be. Not only has Joe Mixon’s talents regressed over the past two seasons, but he’s also been prone to injuries as well. Over the past 4 seasons, Mixon has dealt with a right midfoot sprain, a right knee injury which required arthroscopic surgery, a right ankle sprain (seriously, what’s up with the right side of this mans body), and a concussion. Now I’m not one to focus heavily on injury risk, as injuries come with the territory. But there comes a point where you just have to accept that some players are just made of glass.
In closing, do yourself a favor on draft day, take the best available player NOT named Joe Mixon. When Joe Mixon’s name does get called however, put your beer and draft sheets down, walk over and give your friend who just drafted him a hug.
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Offensive Share Metric:
Ellinas, Lucas. “Joe Mixon Provided Little Value to the Bengals in 2019.” Pro Football Network, http://www.profootballnetwork.com
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